A third runway at Heathrow would move 15,200 aviation jobs that would otherwise accrue in the UK regions to the airport by 2050, according to New Economics Foundation analysis of Department for Transport modelling published last month.
The NEF analysis of the DfT economic paper also found that 6,400 jobs at other London and south-east airports would go to Heathrow instead.
Birmingham airport is set to lose 7.5 million passengers a year by 2050 under the DfT forecasts, a decrease economists put at about 9,500 jobs foregone at the airport and in its supply chain. That accounts for almost 10,000 of the West Midlands total.
The paper was published alongside the government’s consultation on the Heathrow expansion national policy statement, which MPs must approve before the runway can be built.
DfT modelling published with the consultation puts the overall GDP impact of expansion at up to 0.05 per cent a year. Rachel Reeves, the previous chancellor, had championed the scheme on growth grounds.
A peer review carried out for the DfT of its own GDP analysis states: “In my view, it would be erroneous to claim a broad distribution of the gains from Heathrow to regions on the basis of the modelling.”
The distribution of benefits across the UK is one of four tests the government set for approving the scheme.
The findings come a little over a week after Andy Burnham became prime minister. Burnham has said too much infrastructure spending goes to the south of England and has promised to rebalance it with a No 10 North.
Alex Chapman, head of economic policy at the NEF, said: “With every new release of data, Heathrow’s proposed third runway is looking less like a plan for growth and more like a plan to move jobs and investment to London and the south-east. The third runway will take spending out of the places that need it most, anathema to what Burnham stands for.
“As the GDP case for expansion has evaporated, and the environmental damages will be significant, it’s unclear why this is proceeding. The winners from the scheme are the foreign shareholders who, as things stand, will be gifted a guaranteed return in exchange for taking on minimal private risk.”
The government said the NEF analysis focused on a limited period and was misleading. A DfT spokesperson said: “This analysis doesn’t factor in the potential for over 60,000 local jobs that Heathrow expansion will bring. The benefits will be felt across the UK, with up to 40% of the £2.6bn boost to the economy outside of London and the south-east.
“In fact, by 2055 when the expansion is in full swing, passenger numbers at Birmingham airport are forecast to almost triple in size, leading to more local jobs.”
Thomas Woldbye, Heathrow chief executive, said the government’s economic models did not capture all the benefits, including £150bn in trade. “Trade unions, businesses and airports right across the country back this project because they can see the real benefits,” he said.
“The government itself acknowledges that the full economic value of these benefits extends far beyond what can be measured through traditional infrastructure appraisal models, which currently don’t capture any benefit from more exports or the tens of billions of pounds in private investment in UK supply chains.”
Other impact assessments published alongside the consultation found that constructing the runway would have significant adverse effects on the health and wellbeing of up to three million people living nearby.
The current plan is for a 3,500-metre runway passing over the present location of the M25, at an estimated cost of £33bn. It would allow Heathrow to operate up to 756,000 flights a year, against 480,000 now. Ministers have promised to accelerate construction so the runway opens by 2035.
The scheme has been approved by government twice and never completed, and questions over its cost and timeline have been raised by outside analysts. Sceptics include Ed Miliband, now foreign secretary, who opposed expansion within the last Labour government that approved it. Woldbye said: “We look forward to welcoming [Miliband] here a lot more when he is going travelling.”
