President Trump wants Congress to deliver both a $1.5 trillion defense budget and emergency funding for the Iran war this year. As the midterms loom, Congress shows no appetite to give the president what he wants. Members from both sides of the aisle continue to raise concerns about munitions shortages, the war’s objectives and expected length, and the effect on readiness for deterring China.
In most areas of national security policy, Congress has ceded its powers and prerogatives to the president. But its most powerful card, control of the nation’s budget, remains intact and available. Through the power of the purse, Congress holds leverage to limit the president’s prosecution of the Iran war and course-correct the strategic trajectory of the United States. The time to play the ace is right now, before course correction is no longer an option.
Recent reports from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Department of Defense (DoD) Inspector General (IG) paint a grim picture of the consequences the US now faces because of the Iran war. CBO pegs the overall cost of the war thus far at $38 billion. Even more jarring, CBO estimates that if the conflict continues even at a low intensity, the US is still staring down the barrel of a minimum of $2 billion a month. The Trump administration’s pressure on Congress for supplemental funding is only going to increase as operations and maintenance accounts, currently being used to pay the bills, run dry.
An additional $67 billion in emergency funding for the war, on top of the president’s desired $1.5 trillion defense budget, is a tough sell. Most Americans believe the war is not making the US safer and feel the “America First” president is trading away affordability promises for overseas adventurism. Proponents of both spending measures argue moving them through without delay is necessary to support US forces in the field. However, Congress always retains the option to scale down the requests and pass funds for personnel and other immediate needs without rubber-stamping full multi-billion-dollar packages. Congress, just a few weeks out from the midterm elections, cannot afford to be out of step with constituents by cutting large checks for an endless war with no accountability.
Cost is one layer of consideration for Congress. Strategy should be another. The president’s National Defense Strategy puts deterring a conflict with China as the nation’s top security priority outside of defending US borders. Soon, the US may lack the resources to keep deterrence on the table as a credible option.
Resource decisions for the Iran war today undercut US strategy in the Pacific tomorrow. CBO’s analysis revealed the US is facing a critical munitions “shortfall” for the next several years, and the opportunity cost that comes with the shortage hits readiness in the Pacific the hardest. Recently, Secretary Rubio justified delays in arms sales to Taiwan due to more urgent US needs.
The DoD’s IG report on Operation Epic Fury noted that since the war began, “six warships were re-tasked from the Pacific to the Middle East.” Earlier this year, testimony from Pacific Command officials also confirmed munitions and some critical system components were also moved from the Pacific to the Middle East. The report also highlighted that between January and June of this year, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE received high-value munitions and system parts, including for the Patriot and THAAD systems, from the United States. Most of these “emergency” sales bypassed congressional review entirely. Using the Pacific as the bill payer for war in the Middle East, and the risks to readiness incurred as a consequence, deserve significant scrutiny from Congress.
Members of Congress from both parties struggle to accept that limits exist on America’s military resources. It is easier to reach for quick fixes like emergency funding, larger defense budgets, or avoiding strategy debates entirely. However, the colossal costs and strategic implications of the Iran war are too big to ignore. After the midterms, the pressure from the current administration is going to be overwhelming to massively increase the defense coffers. Congress can and should resist. Safeguards for protecting munitions, alignment and protection of U.S. strategic aims in the Pacific, and reporting requirements on the administration to outline an end to the Iran war should all be on the table before any funding measure can move forward.
By asserting its prerogative over the nation’s purse, Congress can put America’s defense dollars back in line with an America First defense strategy.
