After an impressive IPO, SpaceX shares are beginning to face the same challenges Tesla once did.
In the first weeks after its listing, SpaceX stock climbed to $225, significantly exceeding the IPO price of $135. Since then, however, the shares have fallen below $110. This has served as the first signal to investors that cutting-edge technology and Elon Musk’s name alone may not be enough to sustain such a high valuation over the long term.
The parallels with Tesla are striking. After going public in 2010, Tesla stock also experienced a sharp post-IPO decline before rebounding a year later as investors embraced a compelling growth narrative. The launch of the Model S helped convince the market that the company’s business could scale successfully. The big question now is whether SpaceX can follow a similar path.
The company has several arguments in its favor. The Starship program is gradually approaching commercial operation, with the recent 13th test flight marking the most successful in the program’s history. The vehicle completed its main tasks, successfully restarted its engine in space, and executed the softest landing to date. Even more notably, the spacecraft maintained the integrity of its hull so well that it remained afloat for several days after splashdown, prompting SpaceX to organize a dedicated recovery mission. Rather than highlighting technical shortcomings, the episode underscored the program’s growing maturity.
Starship is expected to become a key driver of the company’s long-term growth. The rocket will significantly reduce the cost of launching cargo into orbit while accelerating the deployment of the Starlink satellite constellation, which is already SpaceX’s largest source of revenue. The sooner the company can switch to regular commercial operations, the more convincing its long-term financial outlook will become.
However, investors remain primarily concerned about the company’s financial fundamentals. Aside from Starlink, many of SpaceX’s business lines are still unprofitable. Revenue growth has also begun to fall short of what investors expect from a company valued at roughly $1.4 trillion, while large-scale investments in AI continue to weigh on expenses. Intensifying competition across both the space industry and related business sectors is adding further pressure.
The situation is also complicated by SpaceX’s close relationship with Tesla. Recently, the market was stirred by reports that — to facilitate a potential merger between the two companies — Tesla might have to divest its largest Chinese manufacturing facility in Shanghai. Elon Musk quickly dismissed the claims, calling them completely fictional. Nevertheless, the very existence of such speculation shows that investors continue to view SpaceX and Tesla as elements of a single ecosystem. Meanwhile, the Shanghai factory remains one of Tesla’s key assets; the facility can produce more than 950,000 vehicles annually, supplies several international markets at once, and sources over 95% of its components locally.
As a result, SpaceX’s first year as a public company is likely to become a test of investor confidence. The market has already priced in much of the company’s long-term potential. The next phase will depend on tangible financial results and evidence that its capital-intensive projects can evolve into sustainable profit generators. If the Starship program continues to successfully move toward commercial operation and Starlink maintains its strong growth trajectory, the current weakness in the stock could ultimately resemble Tesla’s post-IPO experience. Until then, however, investors are likely to focus less on ambitious promises and more on how quickly technological breakthroughs translate into measurable financial performance.
